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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.

However the current competition is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and longtime strugglers rising together. During an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's facing several other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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